Will Kalyan Singh make an impact?

The BJP is keeping its fingers crossed over the fallout of Kalyan Singh’s exit on the politics of Uttar Pradesh, which many say holds the key to the formation of the next government at the Centre. The BJP has reasons to find solace in the arguments that “discredited” political leaders are no problem for their rivals. And Kalyan is of course “discredited”. He left the BJP, spewed venom on its tallest leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee, returned after some years, promoted his family members and close aides, walked out of the party again to assuage personal egos and changed not only his party but also his philosophy.

The Hindutva poster boy of yesteryears is ready to don the Samajwadi cap even as he facilitated his son’s entry into the SP, against whom he fought for more than three decades. But it would be harder for Kalyan this time to convince his caste men, who rallied behind the OBC mascot of the BJP when he quit the party in 1999, that his decision to desert the BJP was for the good of his Lodh community.

Kalyan’s biggest strength is caste. He arm-twisted the BJP and had the final word on many issues for the simple reason that he had a solid following of the Lodh community behind him. His earlier decision (of 1999) to walk out of the BJP proved too costly for his parent outfit. He led to the BJP’s defeat in close to 40 assembly seats and his party bagged around four per cent of the total votes polled in the 2002 assembly polls.

However, he returned to BJP in early 2004 sans his magic and the BJP’s tally in the May Lok Sabha polls came down from 25 to nine seats. The former UP Chief Minister failed again in the 2007 assembly elections when the BJP registered one of its worst performances.

“Caste leaves an impact when it is in a negative sense. Kalyan’s Lodh community rallied behind him when he walked out and deserted him when he returned. It is to be seen if those patterns repeat this time against the backdrop that Kalyan has now exposed himself,” a senior BJP leader said.

BJP strategists admitted Kalyan might have some impact on six parliamentary seats -Farrukhabad, Firozabad, Etah, Kannauj, Bulandsaher and Badayun. “However, it is still early to comment on what intensity it would be,” they added.

The BJP is hopeful of a minimal impact of Kalyan on these seats given that it has nothing to lose except for Bulandsaher, which he represents in the present Lok Sabha. Even in Bulandsaher’s Dibai assembly segment, the constituency having more than 1.5 lakh Lodh voters that Kalyan has represented more than half-a-dozen times, his son faced defeat at the hands of a BSP candidate.

“Kalyan could not ensure the victory of his son from a Lodh-dominated assembly constituency that he represented for so many years. He is surely turning out to be a lost force,” BJP leaders claimed.

Party’s national general secretary Arun Jaitley told reporters it is always painful if somebody leaves the party but hoped that Kalyan’s exit would have less impact on BJP’s poll fortunes. “He was not attending the party’s meeting after 2007 assembly elections. He was reluctant to discuss issues related to party’s preparedness for elections in UP,” Jaitley maintained.

The BJP categorically denied Kalyan’s claim that he was insulted and humiliated in the party. “He got things that many BJP leaders have never got after deserting the party and then returning. He would remain a respectable person for us but the decision to quit BJP is his own,” party’s national spokesman Rajiv Pratap Rudy said.

The BJP recollected: Kalyan was allowed to lead the party in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls; BJP president Rajnath Singh was kept out of UP in the parliamentary elections on his request; he was projected as the Chief Ministerial candidate in the 2007 assembly elections even after a lacklustre performance in 2004; tickets were distributed according to his wishes, and one of his close associates Kusum Rai was sent to the Rajya Sabha a month back

BJP sources pointed out the party had offered to nominate Kalyan’s son Rajbir to the Upper House when it was selecting candidates a month back but the former UP CM preferred Kusum Rai to his son.

Interestingly, Kusum was the first close aide of Kalyan to have distanced herself from him after he decided to work in tandem with the Samajwadi Party. “I shall remain in the party, loyal to its leadership and policies,” she reiterated. Kusum is the same woman for whom Kalyan virtually held the party to ransom and got a Rajya Sabha ticket for her.

At 77, Kalyan, undoubtedly, faces the biggest challenge of his political career in the coming Lok Sabha polls.